A self-confessed football nut provides a unique, discerning perspective on what’s going on in the beautiful game.

Like a gambler in a casino, Sir Alex Ferguson went through a full range of emotions as he watched his side crash out of the Champions League last night.

There was the initial euphoria of seeing his bets pay off as two surprise starters, Wayne Rooney and Darron Gibson, were key to Manchester United storming to a three-goal lead against Bayern Munich.

Then came the danger signs that it may not be Ferguson’s lucky night after all. Rafael da Silva received a silly booking for tripping Mark van Bommel when seconds earlier, the Dutchman got away with the very same foul.

Finally came the inglorious downward spiral that befalls all who gamble. Rooney limped off after further aggravating his ankle injury and Rafael was sent off for desperately wanting to take Franck Ribery’s jersey away from him.

And so the English Premier League, a supposed benchmark of quality football, has no representatives in the semi-finals for the first time in seven years.

Has the balance of power shifted back to continental Europe as Germany, Italy, France and Spain each have a club in the final four?

Maybe we should have seen this coming.

How many times have we heard Arsene Wenger claim that he’s on the verge of revolution at Arsenal?

Have you lost count of how often Steven Gerrard has said that this will be THE year for Liverpool?

How about Sir Alex, who begins every summer by stating that only minor tweaks are necessary in his squad? He said so again this past week, which makes as much sense as his assertion that Gary Neville is as fast as Ribery.

It’s not tweaking if you need a new right-back, a central midfielder, a left winger, a striker and a potential replacement for Edwin Van der Sar.

It’s not tweaking if one of your top three goalscorers this season are own goals.

It’s not tweaking if you rather rush your star forward back and see him burst a blood vessel in his leg than start your other striker who cost 30 million pounds.

What you need is rebuilding – from scratch if necessary. However, getting Sir Alex to admit his errors is no easy task.

After being in the game for more than 30 years, he thinks he knows everything and he may be right in most aspects.

However, even a casual fan must be puzzled when stuff like “there’s no more value in the transfer market” and “those typical Germans got him sent off” come out of the Scot’s mouth.

I’m threading on dangerous waters here because questioning the manager’s ways is seen as disrespectful and fickle by some United fans. But being blindly faithful is a more serious crime, at least in my books.

The reality of the situation is that the side is more than capable of finishing in the top three of the league standings because quite frankly, the teams below them just aren’t good enough.

United’s yardstick should be set against the likes of Barcelona and Inter Milan. And right now, there can be no denying the disparity between them and the Red Devils.

The team may still go on to win the league in May but let’s face it, Rooney has carried this club since the season began.

I shudder to think where they would be now if he had been injured earlier, just as I tremble at the thought of having another season with Neville in defence.

Before you conclude that I’m just another spoilt and over-reacting United fan, take a long, hard look at the squad, something that Sir Alex refuses to do.

Consider how Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez were “replaced” and who are in line to succeed Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes and Neville at the club.

Have we consistently seen the free-flowing football this season that were synonymous with United’s play in previous campaigns?

This is not a knee-jerk reaction to results in the past week.

The signs are there and the alarm bells have started to ring.

Sir Alex may have failed on the gambling table last night, but now, he’s playing for much higher stakes – the future of Manchester United football club.

United fans can only hope he has an ace or two up his sleeves.